This photo taken on Jan. 4, 2024 shows solar panels installed on the roof of a residential house in Berlin, Germany. Ren Pengfei/Xinhua/Getty Images Chinese manufacturers are making so many solar panels, it's causing a global glut. Solar panels have become so cheap that some people are using them to line fences.
Around two-fifths of global production of polysilicon, the main raw material for solar panels, comes from the western region of Xinjiang, where the Chinese government has been accused by human rights groups of forcing Muslim minorities to work at factories in detention camps. Beijing rejects carrying out any human rights abuses in the region.
Prices on the spot market have already fallen by half in 2023 and are likely to extend decline by another 40% by 2028, the agency added. China's hold on the solar-panel market is now in a state of oversupply, which means manufacturers elsewhere — such as the US and Europe — are unable to compete effectively.
The 380 GW of new PV installations expected throughout the world in 2023 could be produced entirely without silicon from China's Xinjiang region. Modules in 2019-20 were mostly up to around 350 W and based on monocrystalline PERC technology.
The amount of Chinese photovoltaic cells in storage was enough to cover Europe’s overall annual demand twice over, it said. Chinese companies had now taken “a dumping stance in the European market”, offering two-year contracts with prices “consistently undercutting” spot market prices.
You might think that’s a sign that the entire industry is headed for a crash, but previous high-tech revolutions offer reasons for optimism. Solar panels are ultimately semiconductors, and they share a lot of similarities with the mainstream chip industry. Capital spending is colossal, and rapidly becomes obsolete as the state of the art moves on.
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