Conflicts may also yet emerge in lithium technology production. Global sales of EVs are expected to climb from 1.7 million in 2020 to 26 million in 2030 (Kumagai 2021). In addition, the US and Europe have recently taken steps for increasing domestic production of Li-ion batteries and their recycling, which indirectly helps China's robustness.
Despite foreign dependency, China seems to dominate the market by aggressively buying lithium-related assets globally (S&P Global 2021). This strategy is seen in Table 2, which shows purchase deals completed or pending. Chinese market dominance is also evident in the context of the US–China trade wars.
Lithium-ion battery cell capacity in 2020 and planned for 2030 (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (2021b), as cited in Moores (2021) As the case study shows, China is an exemplar of this new hybrid geopolitics related to lithium, both in lithium supply and lithium-based technological development and production.
The pledge made in the Paris Climate Agreement 2015 and achieving high-quality development with greener energy sources have pushed China towards excessive dependence on imports and thereby increase the supply risk of lithium (Ziemann et al. 2018). China's foreign dependence reached 86% in 2015 (Hao et al. 2017).
In China, over half of the lithium demand is for batteries, and battery lifespan is being extended (Guo et al. 2021). Domestic demand is being created, which generates pressure for more supply-oriented policies. However, such an ambitious policy creates international responses both directly and indirectly.
Compared to the US experiences in the global oil market, China is a game-changer in the lithium market despite the lack of domestic production.
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