Changes in Solar Power Generation Costs

Are solar PV projects reducing the cost of electricity in 2022?

Between 2022 and 2023, utility-scale solar PV projects showed the most significant decrease (by 12%). For newly commissioned onshore wind projects, the global weighted average LCOE fell by 3% year-on-year; whilst for offshore wind, the cost of electricity of new projects decreased by 7% compared to 2022.

How has solar power changed over time?

Both are measured on logarithmic scales, and the trend follows a straight line. That means the fall in cost has been exponential. Costs have fallen by around 20% every time the global cumulative capacity doubles. Over four decades, solar power has transformed from one of the most expensive electricity sources to the cheapest in many countries.

Why are solar power plants so expensive?

The price of steel, the main construction material for both utility-scale PV and onshore wind plants, increased 75% in China, 160% in the United States and 270% in Europe, while copper and aluminium became 60-80% more expensive. The highest growth was in freight rates, which rose almost sixfold.

How much will solar power cost in 2022?

We expect the volume of installed solar generation capacity to rise from 1.24 TW, in 2022, to around 14 TW in 2030. The module price will fall from $0.22 per Watt-peak of generation capacity, in summer 2023, to $0.097/Wp in 2030. Global volume will rise by a factor of 11 and the price will more than halve.

Will the cost of capital increase in solar PV & wind markets?

In real terms (i.e. excluding the impact of inflation), the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is expected to increase in most large solar PV and wind markets, excluding China. The higher cost of capital could offset most of the cost decreases resulting from lower commodity prices and further technology innovation in the next two years.

How much does solar energy cost?

Conservative estimates indicate the result would be a consistent solar energy generation cost of less than $0.02/kWh in central Europe and below $0.01/kWh in Southern Europe and the southern United States. Our empirical modelling is characterized by transparent, comprehensible assumptions and lower complexity than the dominant approach.